August 13, 2022

Auckland Mayoral Poll August 2022

Dear Supporter,

I hope you're having a great weekend. As you will have seen in the media, this month's Ratepayers' Alliance-Curia Mayoral Poll has caused quite a stir!

But before we get to that, a big thank you to the thousands who have lent their support to our campaign to stop Councillors Pippa Coom and Chris Darby from cheering on those who want to close a lane on the Harbour Bridge to turn it into a cycleway. If you've not yet signed the petition, please take 30 seconds to do so here.

New Poll: Race is wide open

While the headline results from our mayoral poll have been widely covered in the media – we are now releasing the full report exclusive to our supporters.

Labour Party-endorsed Efeso Collins remains the front-runner with 22.3% of those voters who are decided.

Ex-Far North Mayor Wayne Brown is a close second on 18.6%. Businessman Leo Molloy (14.5%) was just edging out C&R's Viv Beck (12.5%) for third place, but with his withdrawal (see below) things get interesting on the centre-right.

It is remarkable that no candidate has over 25% of the decided vote.

Poll reaction: Leo Molloy pulls out

Within hours of giving the headline numbers to the NZ Herald, Leo Molloy announced his decision to withdraw from the race.

The poll had Mr Molloy in third place for the 'decided' vote and yesterday being the deadline for nominations, he decided it was time to call it quits. 

You can watch Newshub's 6pm bulletin coverage from last night here.


Given the margin of error, we stress that even those candidates in third or fourth place could still win.

As with previous poll, it confirms that Collins, with the backing of Labour and the Greens, maintains an advantage over his rivals but clearly shows that the vast majority of Aucklanders want a "change candidate", not a sitting councillor / "status quo candidate". 

You can read the full polling report here.

Will Leo Molloy vote propel another anti-establishment candidate to the front?

Dr Molloy pulling out of the race could see one of the trailing candidates catapulted into first place.

This morning's Weekend Herald carries an editorial by the Business Herald Editor, Fran O'Sullivan.  She says:

Of the candidates left standing, I would rate Wayne Brown as having the best chance of making a major difference to the city.

Brown — like Molloy — is an iconoclast with a big ego. He is also abrasive.

That said, he does have a track record of achievement. He proved that while chairing the Auckland DHB and dealing with a major fiscal issue, and he is across other strategic questions like the ultimate shifting of Auckland's port. 

Continue reading (NZ Herald paywalled).

We should get an indication of who benefits from Dr Molloy's decision when we release our next poll in about a month's time – the final poll before voting closes on 8 October.

Until then, thank you for your support and to all our financial supporters who make this work possible.

Josh Van Veen
Auckland Ratepayers' Alliance